Precious Metals Market Update: 10/28/2026

Precious metals recovered through the North American session on Tuesday, reversing an early slide as the Federal Open Market Committee convened the first day of its two-day policy meeting. Gold finished the session quoted at $4,071.40 per troy ounce, a gain of 1.08%, or roughly $43 on the day. Silver outpaced the yellow metal in percentage terms, advancing 1.19% to $55.14 per troy ounce. Platinum posted a more measured gain of 0.54% to $1,551.30, while palladium eased 0.96% to $1,055.82. The gold-to-silver ratio held near 73.8-to-1.

The recovery stood in contrast to a weak overnight and European session, during which a firmer U.S. dollar pushed December gold futures toward $4,025 per troy ounce, leaving the metal within reach of the $4,000 threshold for a third consecutive session. Gold had entered Tuesday down roughly 3.1% over the preceding week and approximately 6.4% over the trailing month, having marked a three-month low beneath $4,000 late last week. Silver carried a steeper near-term decline into the session, off close to 15% over one month, though the metal remains higher by about 13% over twelve months. Treasury yields ticked modestly higher as the Committee's meeting got under way, and the dollar's early strength faded as the North American session progressed, removing the principal headwind that had capped bullion through the morning.

Monetary policy remains the dominant input for the complex. The Committee is widely expected to leave its target range unchanged at 3.75% to 4.00% when it concludes on Wednesday, following the quarter-point increase delivered in September. Pricing compiled by CME Group placed the probability of a move at this meeting below 10%, with roughly 90% odds assigned to a hold. Attention has instead shifted toward December, where the Committee's own projections and fed funds futures both point to a materially higher likelihood of a further increase. Because bullion carries no yield, an extended tightening path raises the opportunity cost of holding it, and that dynamic has been the principal weight on gold and silver through the second half of October.

Inflation remains the complicating factor. Recent wholesale price data arrived hotter than consensus, and elevated energy costs continue to feed through to headline measures, leaving a portion of the market positioned for additional tightening rather than easing. Analysts at Standard Chartered have characterized current levels as a critical juncture for gold, identifying support near $3,886 per troy ounce as the level that must hold to prevent a faster decline. The approach of next week's midterm elections has also been cited as a reason for the Committee to avoid signaling a decisive shift in either direction at this meeting. Several officials have signaled a preference for holding steady while additional data accumulates, a stance that leaves Wednesday's accompanying statement, rather than the rate decision, as the session's principal catalyst for the complex.

Physical demand provided a counterweight to institutional selling. Reports from Asia indicated that Chinese household buyers stepped in as prices tested the $4,000 area, a pattern of dip accumulation that has recurred across several of this year's corrections, even as exchange-traded product holdings continued to see outflows. In the platinum group, producer output disclosures and the continued expansion of futures listings for both metals have kept supply and liquidity in focus, leaving platinum and palladium more responsive to industrial and production signals than to the monetary factors steering the monetary metals. Investors tracking the complex at current levels continue to follow premiums and availability across gold bars and silver coins, where retail demand has remained firm through the recent pullback. With the gold-silver ratio holding in the mid-seventies, the relative value relationship between the two monetary metals has stayed close to the range that has prevailed since midyear.

Spot Precious Metals Prices

Key Drivers

FOMC Opens Two-Day Meeting With a Hold Expected

The Federal Open Market Committee began its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday and is widely expected to leave the target range unchanged at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday afternoon. Pricing compiled by CME Group placed the odds of a move below 10%, against roughly 90% for a hold. The September meeting delivered a quarter-point increase, and both the Committee's projections and futures pricing point toward December as the more probable date for any further action. The statement language on inflation progress is expected to matter more to metals than the rate decision itself.

Dollar Strength Fades Through the North American Session

A firmer dollar weighed on dollar-denominated metals through the overnight and European hours, pushing December gold futures toward $4,025 per troy ounce before buyers returned. That early strength eased as the North American session progressed, allowing bullion to recover the day's losses and close higher. Treasury yields ticked modestly higher as the meeting convened, a backdrop that would ordinarily cap gains in non-yielding assets, but gains were offset by the reversal in the currency.

Hot Inflation Data Keeps Tightening Risk Alive

Recent wholesale price readings came in above consensus, and persistently elevated energy costs continue to pass through to headline inflation measures. That combination has kept a portion of the market positioned for further tightening rather than for easing, which has been the principal source of pressure on precious metals through the second half of October. Standard Chartered has pointed to support near $3,886 per troy ounce as the level gold would need to defend to avoid a faster decline.

Physical Demand Absorbs Exchange-Traded Outflows

Retail and household buying in Asia reportedly accelerated as gold tested the $4,000 area, continuing a pattern of accumulation into weakness seen through several corrections this year. That physical bid has partially offset continued outflows from exchange-traded products, helping to stabilize the market near the lows and contributing to Tuesday's recovery.

Looking Ahead

FOMC Decision and Press Conference, Wednesday

The Committee releases its policy statement at 2:00 PM Eastern on Wednesday, October 28, followed by the Chair's press conference at 2:30 PM. With a hold broadly anticipated, the characterization of inflation progress and any guidance regarding December are expected to drive the reaction across metals, rates, and the dollar.

Core PCE and Third-Quarter GDP, Thursday

September core personal consumption expenditures and the advance estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product are both scheduled for 8:30 AM Eastern on Thursday, October 29. Weekly jobless claims are released the same morning. Core PCE remains the Committee's preferred inflation gauge and will be read closely against the policy statement issued the prior afternoon.

Midterm Elections and the Employment Cost Index

The Employment Cost Index closes the economic calendar on Friday morning, and national midterm elections follow on Tuesday of next week. Both events have been cited as reasons for policymakers to avoid signaling a decisive shift at this meeting, and both carry the potential to influence positioning across commodities into November.

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Disclaimer: This market update is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Precious metals investing involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Prices shown are sourced from texmetals.com and are subject to change.