Precious Metals Market Update: 4/10/2026

Precious metals diverged sharply on Friday after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that March headline CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year — up from 2.4% in February — marking the largest monthly acceleration in years and the highest annual rate since May 2024. Gold declined 0.35% to $4,760.12 per troy ounce as the hot inflation print pushed the 10-year Treasury yield higher to approximately 4.32%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Platinum fell 2.55% to $2,061.80 and palladium declined 1.65% to $1,547.25, reversing portions of their multi-day rally as the prospect of delayed rate cuts weighed on industrial metals. Silver was the sole gainer, advancing 1.00% to $76.61 as its inflation-hedge appeal outweighed yield pressure.

The March CPI report was dominated by energy costs. The gasoline index surged 21.2% month over month, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the overall monthly increase, as the Strait of Hormuz closure's impact on global energy supply chains was fully reflected in consumer prices for the first time. The headline monthly gain of 0.9% was the largest since February 2022. Core CPI — excluding food and energy — rose a more modest 0.2% month-over-month, suggesting that the inflationary impulse remained concentrated in energy rather than broadening across the economy. CME data showed a zero probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the April 29 meeting, and rate-cut expectations for the full year declined, with markets pricing approximately 24% odds of at least one cut by December.

Geopolitical developments continued to shape the backdrop. Vice President Vance departed Washington on Friday for Islamabad, where he is scheduled to lead U.S. negotiations with Iran beginning Saturday. Iran's parliamentary speaker set two preconditions: a ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of frozen assets. Vance rejected those terms en route, warning Tehran against bad-faith engagement. Pakistan's Prime Minister characterized the talks as a "make-or-break moment." WTI crude traded near $97-98 per barrel as physical oil market stress persisted, with dated Brent at $131.97 per barrel.

Spot Prices — April 10, 2026

Key Drivers

• March CPI Surges to 3.3% YoY on 21.2% Gasoline Spike:

  Headline CPI rose to 3.3% year-over-year from February's 2.4%, the largest monthly acceleration in years. The 0.9% monthly gain was driven almost entirely by gasoline (+21.2%) as the Hormuz closure fully passed through to consumer prices. Core CPI rose a more moderate 0.2% month over month, indicating the impulse remained concentrated in energy. CME data showed zero probability of an April rate cut.

• 10-Year Yield Rises to 4.32%, Pressuring Gold and PGMs:

  The hot CPI reversed the 10-year Treasury yield's three-session decline, pushing it to approximately 4.32%. Rising real yields weighed on gold, contributing to sharp selloffs in platinum (-2.55%) and palladium (-1.65%). Silver's inflation-hedge profile enabled it to outperform the complex, delivering a 1.00% gain.

• Islamabad Talks Set for Saturday — Vance Rejects Iran's Preconditions:

  Vice President Vance departed for Islamabad to lead U.S.-Iran negotiations beginning Saturday. Iran's parliamentary speaker demanded a Lebanon ceasefire and release of frozen assets as preconditions; Vance rejected those terms en route. Pakistan's Prime Minister described the session as a "make-or-break moment." The fragile ceasefire and contested Hormuz transit continued to underpin oil near $97-98 per barrel, keeping a floor under gold's conflict premium.

Looking Ahead

• Islamabad Talks (Saturday, April 11):

  The first direct U.S.-Iran engagement begins Saturday. Vice President Vance leads the U.S. delegation alongside envoys Witkoff and Kushner; Iran's delegation is headed by parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf. The outcome carries direct implications for oil, the durability of the two-week ceasefire, and the geopolitical risk premium in gold.

• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Friday, April 10):

  The preliminary April consumer sentiment reading was released on Friday. March's one-year inflation expectation was revised sharply higher to 3.8% from 3.4%. A further increase reinforces the stagflation narrative building alongside the hot CPI print and ongoing energy supply disruptions.

• Fed April 29 Decision:

  The hot March CPI eliminated any remaining expectation for a rate cut at the April 29 FOMC meeting. The Fed's ability to respond to the conflict-driven energy shock remains constrained by elevated inflation. Gold's near-term trajectory hinges on whether the Islamabad talks reduce oil-driven price pressure or the ceasefire collapses and escalation resumes.

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell precious metals. Spot prices reflect market conditions at the time of publication and are subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Texas Precious Metals is not a registered investment advisor. Consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions. Prices sourced from texmetals.com/price-charts.