Precious Metals Market Recap Q2 - 2026

The second quarter of 2026 reversed much of the historic run that defined the first three months of the year. Gold and silver had shattered all-time records in January before a violent March correction, and Q2 picked up where that correction left off. A U.S.-Iran ceasefire briefly lifted the complex to quarterly highs in mid-April, but a Federal Reserve leadership change, two rounds of hot inflation data, and a blowout May jobs report steadily erased the rate-cut expectations that had supported metals through the spring. By June 30, gold had fallen 14.11% on the quarter to $4,018.74, briefly breaching the psychologically important $4,000 level on an intraday basis on June 24 for the first time since November 2025. Silver fared worse, dropping 21.81% to $59.31 after touching a quarterly high above $88 in mid-May. Platinum declined 20.92% to $1,561.70, and palladium fell 18.33% to $1,230.00. All four metals finished Q2 lower, a sharp reversal from the mixed but ultimately positive close to Q1.

All Four Metals at a Glance

*Q2 Open = March 31, 2026, closing spot price, the last U.S. trading day prior to Q2. Q2 Close = June 30, 2026, closing spot price. Q2 High figures reflect each metal's peak level during the quarter, not an all-time record. All prices are sourced from texmetals.com published daily market updates.

The Quarter in Three Acts

Act I: April and a Ceasefire-Driven Climb Q2 opened on a strong note, carried over from March 31, when gold jumped 3.47% on reports that President Trump had privately signaled willingness to end U.S. military operations against Iran. Gold extended that rally on April 1, gaining 1.91% to $4,769.81, as the March ISM Manufacturing report showed prices paid surging to 78.3, its highest reading since June 2022. President Trump's deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz came and went on April 6 and 7 without resolution, but a two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire announced late on April 7 triggered a sharp rally in the platinum group metals on April 8. Palladium surged 6.31% to $1,586.34 and platinum gained 3.82% to $2,049.00 as oil cratered more than 15% on the Strait of Hormuz reopening.

The rally crested on April 14, when a pullback in crude oil and a weakening dollar lifted all four metals at once. Gold surged 2.07% to $4,852.10, its highest close of the quarter, while silver outperformed with a 5.45% gain to $80.26, and palladium closed at $1,607.00, also a quarterly high. Iran's reopening of the Strait of Hormuz under the ceasefire framework added further support on April 17. But the ceasefire proved fragile. As the truce's April 21 expiration approached without a renewal framework, gold fell 2.09% that day to $4,731.18. The month closed on a volatile note, with the Federal Reserve's April 29 meeting drawing four dissents in favor of a more accommodative stance. The divided vote, a softer dollar, and supply concerns out of Russia's Norilsk Nickel and South Africa's Impala Platinum sent platinum surging 5.72% to $2,003.30 and palladium 5.24% higher to $1,556.70 on April 30, closing out the strongest month of the quarter for the metals complex.

Act II: May and the Warsh Pivot

May began with the metals complex still elevated, and a fresh diplomatic push briefly extended the rally. On May 6, reports of active U.S.-Iran negotiations sent oil down more than 7% in a session, lifting gold 2.96% to $4,702.11 and platinum 5.65% to $2,078.20. Silver's industrial demand profile drove a string of outsized gains, including a 7.40% surge to $86.82 on May 11 after President Trump announced he would lead a trade delegation to Beijing. Silver and platinum both touched their quarterly closing highs on May 13 at $88.21 and $2,153.10, respectively, with platinum's intraday range that day reaching $2,195.60.

The peak did not last. The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve's next chair on May 13, replacing Jerome Powell, and back-to-back hot inflation prints sealed the shift in tone. April's consumer price index rose 3.8% year over year on May 12, the highest reading in nearly three years, and April's producer price index rose 6.0% year over year on May 14, the largest annual increase since 2022. Markets pushed the odds of a 2026 rate increase to 37% and pulled forward expectations of higher-for-longer policy. The combination of a stronger dollar and rising real yields hit the complex hard on May 15, when silver fell 8.74% to $76.70, its steepest single-session decline of the quarter, alongside a 2.37% drop in gold to $4,551.49. Metals drifted lower through the back half of May as Hormuz peace hopes ebbed and flowed, with gold settling near $4,500 by month's end.

Act III: June and the Break Below $4,000

June began with cautious optimism about an Iran deal, but a blowout May jobs report on June 5 erased what remained of 2026 rate-cut expectations. Nonfarm payrolls topped consensus by a wide margin, and the metals complex fell sharply across the board: gold dropped 3.27% to $4,339.61, silver fell 7.17% to $68.57, platinum declined 6.20% to $1,792.90, and palladium dropped 6.34% to $1,247.25, all four exceeding 5% losses in a single session. A brief reversal followed on June 11, when U.S. airstrikes against Iran initially pushed gold to its lowest level since November 2025 before President Trump pivoted back toward diplomacy, sending gold up 3.44% and silver up 6.58% in the same session.

The reprieve was short-lived. Incoming Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish dot plot removed the Federal Reserve's 2026 rate cut projection on June 17 and 18, and Goldman Sachs cut its gold target by $500 on June 19, citing the absence of near-term rate cuts. A historic technology selloff, led by a 13.18% drop in Micron Technology, triggered cross-asset liquidations on June 23 that pulled gold down 1.93% and silver down 5.07% even as Middle East tensions simmered. Selling intensified on June 24, when a 0.6% jump in the U.S. Dollar Index pushed gold below $4,000 intraday for the first time since November 2025. Gold closed that day at $4,011.22, its lowest close of the quarter, while silver matched a seven-month closing low at $58.16. Renewed U.S.-Iran strikes on June 29 revived rate-hike fears rather than safe-haven buying, and the quarter closed on June 30 with gold at $4,018.74, down 0.21% on the day and 14.11% on the quarter.

Metal-by-Metal Analysis

Gold: A Record High Quarter Becomes a 14% Decline

Gold fell 14.11% in Q2, from $4,678.98 on March 31 to $4,018.74 on June 30. The metal reached its quarterly closing high of $4,852.10 on April 14, supported by a ceasefire-driven pullback in oil and the dollar, then steadily lost ground as the Federal Reserve's leadership transitioned from Jerome Powell to Kevin Warsh and inflation data repeatedly surprised to the upside. Gold's lowest close of the quarter came on June 24 at $4,011.22, the same session it breached $4,000 intraday for the first time since November 2025. The peak-to-trough decline from the April 14 high to the June 24 low was roughly 17%. Despite the pullback, gold bars and gold coins continued to see retail demand through the quarter's price swings, and Standard Chartered maintained a long-term gold target of $5,100 by mid-2027 even after the June selloff.

Silver: The Steepest Decline of the Four Metals

Silver posted the largest percentage decline among the four metals, falling 21.81% from $75.87 to $59.31. The metal's round trip was dramatic. Silver surged to a quarterly closing high of $88.21 on May 13, driven first by optimism about China-linked industrial demand ahead of the Trump-Xi trade mission and then by the same inflation prints that pressured gold. From that high, silver fell more than 32% to close the quarter at $59.31, including an 8.74% single-day drop on May 15 and a 7.17% drop on June 5. Silver's dual role as a monetary and industrial metal cut both ways in Q2, amplifying gains during the May rally and amplifying losses once rate-cut expectations evaporated, and the June tech selloff raised concerns about industrial demand. Silver coins and bars continued to draw dip buyers as prices retreated through the back half of the quarter.

Platinum: A Volatile Round Trip to Negative 20.92%

Platinum declined 20.92% in Q2, from $1,974.80 to $1,561.70. The metal set its quarterly closing high of $2,153.10 on May 13, with an intraday range of $2,195.60, supported by supply concerns at Norilsk Nickel and Impala Platinum, alongside the same China-demand optimism that lifted silver. Platinum's April 30 surge of 5.72% reflected those same supply themes following a divided Federal Reserve vote. From its May high, platinum fell alongside the rest of the complex as hawkish Fed policy, and the June tech rout weighed on industrial and automotive catalyst demand expectations, closing the quarter back below $1,600 for the first time since before the April rally began. Platinum products remained of interest to investors tracking the metal's trajectory in hydrogen fuel cell and autocatalyst demand through the pullback.

Palladium: Quarterly High Matched Gold's Peak Day

Palladium fell 18.33% in Q2, the smallest percentage decline among the four metals, from $1,506.07 to $1,230.00. The metal's quarterly closing high of $1,607.00 came on April 14, the same session gold and silver also posted their strongest closes of the quarter, as a broad-based rally lifted the entire complex on a weaker dollar and falling oil prices. Palladium's concentrated supply base in Russia and South Africa kept it sensitive to geopolitical headlines throughout Q2, including a 6.31% surge on the April 8 ceasefire announcement and a 6.34% drop on the June 5 jobs shock. A Norilsk Nickel forecast of a 300,000-ounce global surplus for 2026, disclosed in late June, added metal-specific pressure on top of the broader macro headwinds weighing on the complex into quarter-end.

Five Forces That Defined Q2 2026

1. The Powell-to-Warsh Federal Reserve Transition The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve's next chair on May 13, replacing Jerome Powell, whose term ended May 15. Warsh's more hawkish posture, combined with a dot plot that removed the 2026 rate cut projection on June 17 and 18, eliminated the rate-cut expectations that had supported metals earlier in the quarter and was the single most consistent headwind across Q2.

2. Back-to-Back Hot Inflation Data April's consumer price index rose 3.8% year over year, and April's producer price index rose 6.0% year over year, both released in mid-May and both exceeding consensus forecasts. May's consumer price index hit 4.2% in June, the hottest reading since 2023. Each report pushed Treasury yields higher, reinforcing a higher-for-longer policy outlook that pressured non-yielding precious metals.

3. The U.S.-Iran Ceasefire's On-Again, Off-Again Cycle A ceasefire announced on April 7 reopened the Strait of Hormuz and drove some of the quarter's sharpest single-day moves, but the truce repeatedly broke down. Renewed airstrikes on June 11 and again on June 29 whipsawed the complex, at times reviving safe-haven demand and at other times reviving rate-hike fears that overwhelmed any safe-haven bid.

4. A Resurgent Dollar and Rising Treasury Yields The U.S. Dollar Index strengthened through May and June as rate-cut expectations faded, climbing roughly 0.6% in a single session on June 24 alone to help push gold below $4,000 intraday. Rising 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields, which touched their highest levels in nearly a year in mid-May, compounded the dollar's drag on the complex.

5. The June Technology-Led Risk-Off Rout A 13.18% drop in Micron Technology and a 13.64% drop in Sandisk on June 23 triggered a broad cross-asset liquidation that pulled even traditional safe-haven gold lower alongside equities. The episode illustrated how institutional cash-raising during sharp equity selloffs can pressure precious metals even when the same selloff might otherwise support safe-haven demand.

Q3 2026 Outlook

The path of Federal Reserve policy under new Chair Kevin Warsh is the dominant variable heading into Q3. Markets enter the third quarter pricing in little chance of a 2026 rate cut, a sharp reversal from the expectations that prevailed for much of Q1 and early Q2. Any softening in Warsh's tone, or a string of cooler inflation prints, could revive the rate-cut case that supported gold and silver earlier this year. A continuation of hot inflation data would likely extend the dollar's strength and keep pressure on the complex.

The U.S.-Iran conflict remains a wildcard. The ceasefire cycle that defined Q2, with the Strait of Hormuz opening and closing in response to shifting diplomatic and military developments, produced some of the quarter's largest single-day moves in both directions. A durable resolution would likely remove a persistent source of volatility from oil and, by extension, the inflation outlook that has weighed on metals since May. Shanghai Platinum Week, scheduled for July 6 to 10, will offer an early read on platinum group metals supply and demand expectations heading into the second half of the year.

Longer-term analyst targets remain constructive despite the quarter's pullback. JPMorgan reiterated a view in May that gold could reach $6,300 per ounce in 2026, UBS has maintained a year-end target of $5,900, and Standard Chartered has set a $5,100 target for gold by mid-2027. Each forecast assumes continued central bank accumulation and an eventual return to a more accommodative Fed posture. Whether Q3 confirms or further delays that path will likely determine whether the second quarter's decline proves to be a correction within a longer bull market or the start of a more sustained reversal.

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