Precious Metals Market Update: 3/31/2026

Precious metals posted their strongest session in weeks on Tuesday as a Wall Street Journal report that President Trump privately expressed willingness to end U.S. military operations against Iran -- even without securing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz -- triggered a broad risk-on rally. Gold surged +3.47% to $4,678.98, its largest single-day gain since the conflict began on February 28. Silver led the complex with a remarkable +7.51% advance to $75.87, while Platinum rose +3.12% to $1,974.80 and Palladium gained +5.42% to $1,506.07.

The Journal reported that Trump and his team concluded that efforts to clear the Strait of Hormuz would extend the conflict beyond the White House's intended timeframe of four to six weeks. Administration officials indicated the focus has shifted to degrading Iran's naval capabilities and missile reserves before reducing military actions and transitioning to diplomacy. The development represented the most concrete signal to date that a near-term de-escalation is under consideration, prompting a sharp recalibration across financial markets.

Equities rallied in response, with the S&P 500 climbing approximately 2.5% and the Dow gaining roughly 1,000 points. However, all three major indexes remain on track for their worst quarter since 2022. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year note declining more than 4 basis points to approximately 4.30%, as the bond market increasingly views the Iran conflict as a recession risk rather than solely an inflation catalyst. The JOLTS report for February showed job openings at 6.882 million, essentially in line with expectations of 6.890 million but down from the prior reading of 7.240 million, signaling continued cooling in the labor market.

Oil markets presented a more complex picture. Early in the session, Brent crude surged to approximately $118.50 per barrel after Iran attacked a Kuwaiti oil tanker docked outside Dubai, signaling intensified control over the Strait of Hormuz. However, prices pulled back as the war-exit report circulated, with WTI settling near $100 per barrel. Trump also called on allies to seize control of the Strait, stating on social media that countries unable to receive oil supplies should "go to the Strait and just TAKE IT." Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, speaking at Harvard on Monday, indicated the central bank can afford to "wait and see" how the conflict affects inflation and the economy, noting that policymakers generally look through supply-driven price shocks. Consumer inflation expectations, however, surged to a seven-month high in March according to survey data released Tuesday. Investors seeking to add physical precious metals to their holdings can explore gold bars, silver coins, and platinum at Texas Precious Metals.

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Key Drivers

Trump Signals Willingness to End Iran Conflict

The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump privately told aides he is prepared to end military operations against Iran without securing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The administration concluded that clearing the waterway would extend the conflict beyond the desired four-to-six-week timeline.

Iran Attacks Kuwaiti Tanker, Oil Surges Toward $120

Iran struck a Kuwaiti oil tanker docked near Dubai, signaling intensified control over the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude surged to approximately $118.50 per barrel before pulling back on war-exit hopes.

Treasury Yields Decline, JOLTS Data Shows Cooling Labor Market

The 10-year yield fell more than 4 basis points to approximately 4.30% as the bond market increasingly prices the conflict as a recession risk. February JOLTS data showed 6.882 million job openings, down from 7.240 million in the prior month. Consumer inflation expectations surged to a seven-month high.

Looking Ahead

ADP Employment and ISM Manufacturing (Wednesday)

The ADP private payrolls report and ISM Manufacturing index on Wednesday will provide the first March data capturing the initial impact of the Iran conflict on economic activity and business sentiment.

April 6 Iran Energy Infrastructure Deadline

The deadline for potential U.S. strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure remains in place, though the war-exit report introduces uncertainty about whether the administration will follow through. Diplomatic developments over the coming days are the dominant near-term catalyst.

Nonfarm Payrolls and Good Friday

The March nonfarm payrolls report is scheduled for Friday morning, but markets close early for Good Friday, compressing the window for reaction. The data will be the most comprehensive gauge of labor market health since the conflict began.

Disclaimer: This market update is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Precious metals investing involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Prices shown are sourced from texmetals.com and are subject to change.